Election Purge
November 4, 2004
This is the 59th post here at northoftheborder over the last 10 months or so. In the previous 58, I have steered clear of the impending US election for many reasons, but lest you should think I am indifferent, I present to you an essay on just how much of a political junkie I have become.
First, my reasoning for not commenting earlier. I tend to believe that politics, like many other things, is both personal and volatile. I tend to lean right on most issues, but that will be the last you hear of personal belief in this little post, from here on out it will be pure analysis. There is far too little respect given from either side of the political spectrum, and I have no intensions of starting a political blog or a even a discussion on the issues. Moderating such a thing would be a full time job. I just want to give you some thoughts on how I saw and experienced the election. End disclaimer... Note: I have disabled comments for these reasons, if you want to respond, write it on your blog and I will link it here.
The Experience
I'm in Calgary this week, so I watched the election from the comforts of the Mountain Time Zone, which proved to be a blessing by the end of the night. I do believe this year ushered in a new way to watch elections, at least for the seriously geeky. I watched my laptop just as much as the TV throughout the night, with about 4 separate windows open with real-time data coming into them. The only small drawback was that all day Wednesday it felt like I had used each of my eyes to strike a match the night before. I hung in there all night and into the morning, finally giving in around 3am Mountain / 5am Eastern feeling fairly certain it was over, but also fairly certain no one would say that until sometime the next day.
The News Coverage
There was obviously caution from the networks in calling states, with several of them holding traditionally red states like the Carolinas and Virginia until they were sure. They also were fairly cautious when it came to Florida, for good reason. Then with Ohio they split in to two camps, I name them "Boy I Hope We Are Right" and "Yea Right, We Aren't Touching That Until Wednesday". In the first stood NBC and Fox, calling Ohio at virtually the same time for Bush. The others, CBS, CNN and ABC fell in to the second camp, many of them underhandedly criticizing NBC and Fox for being presumptive.
Where this proved interesting was much later, at about 3 or so Eastern, when Nevada clearly fell to Bush. CBS, CNN and ABC all gave those electors to Bush as they should have. However, when NBC and Fox had called Ohio, they had Bush's total resting at 269. If they were to call Nevada with its' 5 electoral votes to Bush as well, they would have to also concede that he had won the election as it would press him over the 270 threshold. So they sat there, in near blind ignorance like Nevada wasn't even there. With the realization that the Kerry campaign would at least push the madness into the day Tuesday, the networks all clammed up, obviously not wanting to make another 2000 mistake.
By far the best part of watching the night move by was how fussy the reporters got as the night went on. It was obvious the stress, uncertainty and sleep deprivation got the best of them. Many times they rolled eyes, cut off guests and fought to get their words out straight. I guess it is tough when you are used to doing an hour or less of TV a day, and then all of a sudden asked to fill 8 hours or more with coverage.
I spent most of the evening at NBC, enduring Tim Russert to watch my favorite anchor Tom Brokaw moderate his last election coverage (he's stepping down as anchor December 1). I flipped around here and there, enjoying George Will on ABC and even CNN's coverage at times.
Why Bush Won
I felt Bush would eek out a victory going in based on one poll. When asked, close to half of Kerry supporters indicated they were voting for the Senator because of a reason related to Bush, not Kerry's stance himself. Alternatively, 4 in 5 Bush supporters faced with the same question said they were in the Bush camp because of Bush's platform, not his opponent. It's not hard to see the advantage here, think of it in sports terms. In the World series, surely many Yankee fans rooted for the Cardinals simply because of their hatred for the BoSox. So who do you think is more loyal, a die hard Cardinal fan or a Yankee fan out for spite? Yea, me too...
But the real sleeper of the election was the "moral" vote. While everyone was focusing on Iraq and the economy, the moral convictions of America ruled many minds Tuesday, and those that deemed it primary to the presidency broke 4 to 1 for Bush. What does this show? The months the Republicans spent rallying their base paid off, with evangelicals coming out in droves for Bush. This, coupled with the fact that younger voters again did not show up, was huge in the final outcome.
Another factor: the majority of Americans care more about security than our reputation in the world. This was a drum Bush beat loudly all the way home, and it scored for him big, especially in Ohio.
Lastly, Bush should thank Brother Jeb in Florida. Jeb Bush, governor of Florida, has enjoyed high approval ratings lately, and I think that helped Bush over the top in the extremely pivotal Florida.
Why Kerry Lost
Communications. His debate performances, particularly the first, were impressive, but it didn't bode well that for most voters it was their first clear look at him and his policies. He also didn't seem to be able to sustainably take the fight to Bush, instead living most of the campaign on the defensive. Also, in this world of five second sound bites, Kerry could not compact his message into edible bits for voters to get a feel of where he stood, and this inevitably led to the flip-flopper stigma.
The South: This always was a trouble spot for Kerry, which is why he brought in Edwards. It didn't help. People don't vote for VP's, they vote for presidents. I am not sure a New England democrat can carry much in the South these days. Since Kennedy, the only democratic presidents have come from the south (Johnson, Texas; Carter, Georgia; Clinton, Arkansas). Think Edwards is in the hunt for the Democratic Nomination for '08? Yessir...
And I present this to you: Not since Kennedy has a candidate been elected straight from a seat in Congress to the presidency. American's like proven leadership, either in the form of previously serving as VP (Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Bush[42] since Kennedy) or as a Governor (Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Bush[43] since Kennedy). This isn't really talked about much, but I think there is something to it. The ability to lead bureaucracies seems to give comfort to voters when it involves the presidency.
So to sum it up, the Democrats need a southern governor, but I don't think Zell Miller should wait by the phone...
Big Picture
The Dems lost a lot more than the Presidency Tuesday, with some key losses in the Senate as well, especially the Daschle loss. It will be interesting to see how they recover. They have to find a platform that can motivate their base and stick to it. And I don't think the answer is placing Dean in the Chairman's seat, going farther left won't help them. I don't think Hillary for President is the answer either, their best shot in '08 has to be Edwards. From his speech in the wee hours of Wednesday morning on, he wasn't running for Vice President, he was running for President. But there is alot of time between now and then.
The Republican landscape for '08 is interesting too, as Guliani has been posturing quite a bit during the election. McCain and Sen. Bill Frist should be there too, but who knows. I still say Colin Powell is a possiblity, albeit a longshot.
Things that Held, Things that Didn't
The tradition of the incumbent going the way of the Washington Redskins' final home game before the election ended. The Redskins lost to Green Bay Sunday, yet Bush won.
School children accurately picked the winner of the election again, as they have every time since 1956. Amazing...
The tradition of undecideds breaking 2 to 1 for the challenger didn't materialize. The undecideds broke evenly for Kerry and Bush, perhaps proving that the 2 to 1 model does not apply to wartime presidents.
Again, a Republican wins the presidency by way of Ohio. No Republican has won the office of president without that state's electoral approval. Furthermore, no one from either party has won the presidency without Ohio since Nixon won the state in 1960, but lost the election to Kennedy.
Many thought the Red Sox curse breaking antics were a good omen for Kerry, perhaps a different kind of curse now?
The cell phone polling theory. Many thought that because cell phones aren't included in polling, that the race was much more in Kerry's favor, as younger voters often have no land line. Not really sure why, but this didn't seem to show through in the results.
The Canadian Perspective
In case there is any confusion, I should point out that I am an American and live here because of my job, not because I ran away. I love and often miss my country.
Canadians are far more liberal as a corporate whole than Americans are, so they tend to side with Democrats, and it was no different this time. The exception would be Alberta, a very conservative province that has heavy ties to and influence from Texas interestingly enough.
I heard many Canadian comments on the news to the effect of "How can 60 million people be so stupid?" and in fact this is being said over the pond in England as well and probably elsewhere. To me, this is a problem for liberals anywhere. Not all, but some. There is this generalization that you must be stupid if you voted for Bush, which really turns people off and sounds elitist. I also think this had an effect on polling. It became darn near politically incorrect to be for Bush, so I think many voters opted out of polling, skewing the predictions. In the end, it matters not what Canadians, Brits, Germans or anyone else thinks. You have your own elections to participate in, we can handle ours. Thanks...
See Ya in 2008
Well I tried to get through that without sounding too biased, but after reading over it I might have failed in a few places. This is why I don't post about politics, it's hard to be centrist (yes I learned that word today, so?!). Look for my next political post four years from now, we'll resume the regular chicanery soon. See you then!
Filed under Life in General, News